Data and Dice

Publicly sharing some idle ideas of mine for future articles, figuring others might sound off to reinforce interest in a specific article. Please forgive the wall of text, I’ve had a lot of work meetings this week. :laughing:

Army Popularity
I have enjoyed seeing you breakdown army popularity for events, and now changes in popularity from year-to-year at the same events since you’ve been coving this longer. I am wondering if it might be helpful or interesting to view this explicitly through a more competitive lens? For example, just taking I donno, US Masters-qualifying tournaments in a given year and comparing that info. (What armies are popular? How many individuals are taken? Are ASB’s becoming more popular? Average Defense/Speed/ ranged Shots, common spells?) Establishing and defining the metagame is the first task to running clever and unorthodox lists.

Theme vs Master Lists for Popularity
Theme lists vs master lists could be neat comparisons too. Running Herd and Varangur myself… they seem to get less love than the master lists, and this inquiry could be ways to quantify the Orc, Green Lady, and Rhordia questions you posited a few days ago. I feel like theme lists are less popular, but will likely stick around to support more legacy armies, or as way to rope in other players (Warriors of Chaos for Varangur, etc).

Withdraw Rule, and Individuals vs Scoring Units
Previously you’ve noticed a bit of a split in the UK vs everyone else, since the UK did not adopt the optional withdrawal rule. With optional command dice on the horizon now, this previous schism might be worth exploring a little more. For example, the US seems to highly value scoring units over any supporting individuals, which could be related to us adopting that optional rule. Taking comparable events on either side of the ‘ol pond and comparing some things (army popularity, individuals, all the things mentioned in the Army Popularity idea…) might be informative. In particular, keeping an eye on Ogres might be fun to compare/contrast or otherwise explore in detail (comparing top-performing lists maybe), as they seem very popular in both metas, but really embody our region’s preferred Unit Strength approach to the game.

Common / Ideal Unit Sizes
Given the pricing discount, Kings of War encourages larger units, and I would say that that is generally the case. I am curious if there is data to back that up, to see if folks are running units “as intended” and as big as possible? A few avenues of inquiry come to mind:

  • Looking at tar-pit blocks like Undead Zombies, Abyssal Succubi Larvae, and Halfling/Rhordian Halfling Braves, where one could be run as Legions, but generally don’t. (or do they?)
  • Similarly, are any unusual units being run as troops when they could be run as larger units? Rob’s Halfling Stalwart troops, and my recent Herd Trappers and Centaur Striders come to mind examples, and I think there were a few unique picks at US Masters, like a Dwarf Berserker troop and Elf Forest Guard, as very disruptive chaff.

ASBs
They got some intriguing buffs, with Very Inspiring and auras now. Wondering if the data goes back far enough to discern or prove an uptick in popularity? If not, I am wondering how many lists seem to be running them nowadays. Lute + ASB was a go-to for my KOM since way before the buff, and with you noting the Lute as a standout popular magic item in some recent tournaments, it might be neat to dig into ASBs, their popularity and their loadouts more.

Shooting
IIRC, Deadzone is often described as their shooty game and KOW is their melee game. So how popular is non-war machine shooting these days? What units are popular, and at what size? Are non-piercing bows or are piercing weapons preferred? Are Villein Bowmen or shooty hordes common at all (I tend to think we are going against the grain), or are bananas Gladestalker regiments and their ilk the only “viable” shooting units in the game right now?

Unit Tiers
Messy idea, but bear with me. In my MMU musings, I’ve started splitting units (particularly infantry units) into tiers, which got me thinking about the popularity (and viability) of certain units. Low Tier is stuff like Undead Zombies, or Nightstalker Scarecrows, or KoM Militia: stuff with 5+ to hit and/or bad defense. Mid-Tier is Herd Spears, or KoM Shield Wall, or NA Ice Naiads: stuff with 4+ Melee and 4+ defense. High-Tier is stuff like Dwarf Ironclad, or Undead Soul Reavers: stuff 3+ to hit, good offense, special rules, and/or great defense.

In my musings, High-Tier is common because you get a nice, specialized unit. Low-Tier is common because it’s cheap and unlocks. But Mid-tier stuff seems to be uncommon, as you seem to need a significant gimmick (Ensnare, Phalanx and Regen on the Ice Naiads, for example) to make them an attractive pick. (The counter-argument is that, anecdotally, spear Hordes do seem more popular recently. I know my Herd aren’t going to run basic Tribal Warriors anytime soon, and Lima’s Ratkin are almost all Spears these days too, so I am curious just how popular these “bland” units actually are.)

(Cavalry is messier to try and describe with tiers, but could be neat to explore as well. I feel like there aren’t really Low-Tier Cav units hitting on 5’s (Even Fleabag Riders and Sniffs are Melee 4+), so Mid-Tier would be Undead Revenant Cavalry, all the shooty cav, and stuff like the KOM Mounted Sergeants and Fleabags. High-Tier would be all the heavy cav and knights. I don’t feel like Monstrous Cavalry has enough entries to really subdivide, but popularity of Salamander Rhinosaurs or NA/Varangur Frostfangs, and by extension expensive monstrous cav could be worth diving into again at some point.)

Popularity of Phalanx
I am wondering if these units are more popular now? I know my Herd aren’t going to run basic Tribal Warriors anytime soon, and Lima’s Ratkin are almost all Spears these days too. This rides a bit on the Tier idea above, but I’m idly curious if we’ve seen any data to show an uptick in the popularity of these Phalanx units.

Viability of Chariots
Ogre Chariots and Elven Nobles seem to be the only instances I hear of Chariots, though plenty of armies have access to them, either as mounts or as full units. I’ve been meaning to hobby up some KOM Chariots for eh, well over a year or so now, and just can’t quite find the motivation to sit down with them! They looked like fun units to me, but Chariots have seemed like awkward picks for years, and some data to show that, or get a discussion around them going might be fruitful to see if there is a path for them in a future edition.

Popularity of Regeneration / randomness in highly competitive games
As you showed, the Abyssals weren’t well-represented at the US Masters. I think we posited a few things that fed into that, including the looming refresh. But at this level of competitiveness, I think the “swinginess” of Regeneration also plays a part. It is not an uncommon rule, and I would be curious how often Regeneration shows up as a rule in more competitive games, and what units might be leading the charge in popularity there?

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